The project will allow RUSI to mark this milestone by examining the top ten SOC threats to the UK in 2023. Specifically, analysis will cover the evolution of each threat since 2013; the ways in which the UK has responded and the effectiveness of the response to date. We will also conclude by considering the ten years to come – and the ways in which threats are set to evolve to 2033.
This analysis is much needed: in 2023 the government recognises that SOC causes ‘more harm, to more people, more often, than any other national security threat’. SOC is understood as posing a chronic, corrosive threat to the UK, with a significant impact on citizens, public services, businesses and infrastructure. The threat is dynamic and global in nature, with new variations in criminal activity emerging in a fast-changing global environment. The UK’s response must be evidence-based and agile, with independent research playing a key role in the whole-system response to this harmful threat.
RUSI will deliver this analysis through a ten-part article series under the ‘Ten Year Retrospective’ banner. The series will provide independent analysis of the UK’s record in priority threat areas, while considering the future of the overarching SOC threat.
The journey of each threat will be examined in up to 2,000 words of analysis published on RUSI.org, potentially with infographics to display the trajectory of the threat and response. The potential to develop a form of scoring metric for each threat will be explored, if methodologically feasible. Social media assets will be used to promote individual articles and the wider ‘10 Year Retrospective’ series.
The analysis will be developed following the convening of three closed-door roundtables, with the threats grouped together per previous National Strategic Assessments (broadly: commodities, vulnerabilities, prosperity). Roundtables will bring together a limited number of selected stakeholders closely involved in the UK response to each threat, including key law enforcement actors.
RUSI will publish the ten commentaries over the autumn and winter of 2023, coinciding with the two-day Serious and Organised Crime Conference 2023 on 5–6 December.