Ukraine’s recent long-range strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol and its ships triggered discussions about the related operational impact. Much less attention has been paid to the important strategic implications of Ukraine’s successful military activities in the Black Sea.
With Europe divesting from Russian hydrocarbons in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has shifted the bulk of its exports to the east. However, the risk is that it goes too far and leaves itself vulnerable to Chinese and Indian economic and political influence.
At the root of the peacekeeping crisis in Africa is a paradox. UN peacekeepers tend to be well-resourced but unwilling to undertake dangerous enforcement missions, whereas African peacekeepers are more willing to do what is needed to maintain peace, but rarely receive the logistical and financial resources they need.
The ruling Law and Justice party, in power since 2015, has signalled that it is unlikely to leave gracefully after a much-anticipated parliamentary election denied it a majority. For the EU, as well as NATO, such an anti-democratic turn in Warsaw is a nightmare scenario – but it need not happen.
Since 2018, a pro-Kremlin organisation called the All-Russia People’s Front has taken on an increasingly important role in Russia, both to increase support for the ruling United Russia party, and now as a tool to galvanise support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The UK government is exploring new rules on the use of AI in weapons systems, including autonomous weapons systems. In doing so, it has an opportunity to follow the US’s lead, build a shared framework for allies and show moral leadership.
The threat of an internet cut-off looms in Taiwan, as a months-long outage on Matsu earlier this year made plain. To defend itself from a possible Chinese invasion or prolonged blockade, the island must strengthen its satellite-communication capabilities, rather than seek the services of Elon Musk’s Starlink.
As an antidote to broad-brush speculation, the careful observation of appointments across Russia’s political system can serve as a guide to continuity and change in policymaking and provide hints as to the future direction of Russia’s war effort.
The new security agreement between the US, South Korea and Japan reflects the shifting sands of regional geopolitics, especially heightened concerns about North Korea and China. Achieving its full potential, however, will require an openness to dialogue with both countries and cooperation on domestic challenges.
In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Poland’s populist government has embarked on what looks like a major rearmament programme. Yet, despite all the announced plans to purchase state-of-the-art weaponry from the US and South Korea, very little thought seems to have gone into how to plan the country’s defence.
After two wars and over 30 years of military hostility, an end to the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh appears within reach, but a return to violence remains a real possibility unless the final obstacles can be overcome.
It is no coincidence that both hunger and violent conflict are rising at an alarming rate. Owing to the increasingly interconnected and homogenised nature of food systems, the disruptive effects of war, climate change and other man-made problems are fuelling each other in a dangerous self-perpetuating cycle.
While Russian leaders have cited NATO enlargement as a justification for invading Ukraine, ordinary Russians have much to gain from Ukrainian membership. Ukraine’s accession would force the Kremlin to shed its addiction to military spending, rejoin the global economy, and dissuade future autocrats from pursuing a revanchist agenda.
The bruising that Moscow’s forces have received in Ukraine will undoubtedly feed into future Russian military thinking. However, the overriding factor will continue to be Moscow’s grand strategy, and how it seeks to use military power in pursuit of geopolitical objectives.
China’s rapidly growing footprint in Myanmar is the US’s strategic loss, and it is the direct result of the US's own policies. Rather than closing the door on dialogue by imposing stringent sanctions, the US should be co-opting Myanmar's military leaders for its own strategic benefit.
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit draws to a close, the strength of the relationship between Moscow and Beijing has come under the spotlight. Although Moscow has increased impetus to deepen ties with Beijing since the Ukraine war, there are still difficulties beneath the surface.
Taiwan and its supporters in East Asia should be considering scenarios other than a Chinese invasion or blockade of the island. China's most obvious next step toward unification lies much closer to the mainland.