RUSI Newsbrief

With the exception of the extreme right, no one in Israel wants to be stuck in Gaza, responsible for 2.4 million Palestinians, and facing a likely insurgency. Israel can end this war soon and save those hostages who are still alive, having demilitarised Gaza and set the stage for an alternative to Hamas.

After more than 200 years of neutrality with respect to regional and global great-power conflicts, Sweden has now chosen a side with its formal accession to NATO. With major strategic assets to offer the alliance, Sweden's membership represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power.

Two years after Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression, Ukraine is still holding the line militarily, and even beginning to recover economically. As much as Vladimir Putin wants the world to think he has shielded the Russian economy from blowback, recent financial and economic developments suggest otherwise.

Growing concerns over Beijing’s coercive power in the critical mineral supply chain have led the US and other Western countries to explore new strategies for diversifying away from China. Japan provides a useful case study in this regard.

Whether they target Chinese vessels directly or not, attacks on Red Sea shipping by Houthi rebels threaten to undermine China’s economic recovery. But, viewed through the lens of its rivalry with the US, the current turmoil in the Middle East is not bad news for China.

Given the island’s role in the US–China rivalry – which can be understood as a contest between democracy and autocracy – the recent presidential and legislative elections may turn out to be a kind of bellwether. In any case, believers in democratic principles worldwide have reason to celebrate.

Ensuring that the UK is ready to cope with national challenges requires increased resourcing and a commitment to the right level of governance, based on a clear strategy that can be implemented across the whole of society.

The impending demise of Myanmar’s military junta illustrates that autocracies can be brittle and that democratic transitions can be resumed. But even though resistance forces will likely overthrow the regime, they will require meaningful support from regional powers to reconstitute a viable pluralistic state.

It is hard to see anything good coming from the current spasm of violence between Israel and Hamas. But this tragedy, which has forced both Israelis and Palestinians to stare into the abyss, might prove to be a turning point that will clear the path for a lasting peace.