RUSI Newsbrief

Already struggling to get out of its deepest economic downturn in 120 years, Latin America now must brace for the possibility of another Donald Trump presidency. Judging by the Republican candidate's campaign promises and longstanding positions on trade and immigration policy, the implications would be dire.

There is good reason to think that, even if Russia and Ukraine reached a peace deal, Vladimir Putin would readily abandon it and re-invade Ukraine at the first opportunity. That is why any agreement must include a guarantee from NATO to protect Ukraine’s independence in the long term.

Having ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after nearly 16 years of corrupt, authoritarian rule, Bangladeshi youth are exercising political agency and articulating a vision of good governance and a merit-based society. Though a democratic renewal is far from assured, it is more likely if young people remain committed and ready to mobilise.

Contrary to what many Western policymakers and commentators once hoped, recent analyses have added to the evidence that trade does not always foster democracy or liberalise regimes. Instead, China’s greater integration with the developing world appears to be doing precisely the opposite.

The US and China are both vying for influence among Global South countries, whose support will be crucial in shaping the future of the international order. Against this backdrop, it is increasingly important to understand Beijing’s views of this unfolding contest.

The alliance of convenience between Russia and China threatens not only to accelerate an increasingly overstretched US’s relative decline, but also to erode Indian security. India now must take advantage of its relationship with Russia to mediate an end to the Ukraine war and drive a wedge between Russia and China.

If opposition candidate Masoud Pezeshkian wins and succeeds President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month, US policymakers must respond constructively. Such a scenario could not only reduce the risk of a wider war in the Middle East, but also prepare the way for a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine.

Struggling under an unsustainable debt burden, Pakistan must take decisive action to monetise its huge unrealised geostrategic value, while also unlocking the hidden value of its state-owned enterprises.

Borrowing from the Kremlin’s playbook, Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s de facto ruler, is seeking to eliminate foreign-funded NGOs, suppress independent media, and eradicate the political opposition. His determination to establish an authoritarian regime reflects his harmony of interests with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Thanks to a combination of shrewd political tactics and powerful false narratives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party appear to be headed toward an easy victory in the country’s ongoing parliamentary election. With that, the erosion of Indian democracy will almost certainly accelerate.