RUSI Newsbrief

While the recent eruption of unrest in Nepal is not uncommon for a region that remains in perpetual crisis, it does represent a dangerous new trend. For India, the challenge is not only to maintain strategic autonomy, but to promote its vision of a more inclusive, rules-based, and connected South and Southeast Asia.

The protests currently sweeping Indonesia are not fleeting outbursts, but rather the culmination of long-suppressed grievances over abuses of power and the erosion of constitutional norms. To address this widespread discontent, President Prabowo Subianto must focus on four priorities.

Despite Russia's obvious economic dependence on China, the Chinese are not yet dictating outcomes, and Russia is not acting like a junior partner. Political, historical, and geographical factors on each side ensure that nothing about the relationship will be simple or straightforward.

Appeasement has never tamed revisionist powers, and it has often emboldened them. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi learned this the hard way during his first years in power, when China took advantage of his goodwill to alter the Himalayan status quo in its favour, but now he is at risk of falling into the same trap.

Instead of confronting Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, the international community clings to the mirage of Palestinian statehood. But the version currently on offer will neither end Gaza’s devastation nor deliver the genuine sovereignty implied by the longstanding promise of a two-state solution.

Regime change in Iran is far harder than many assume. But if the Islamic Republic were to fall, the country already possesses a robust institutional scaffolding – linking central ministries to elected authorities in more than 1,000 cities and 35,000 villages – that could become the foundation for a democratic system of governance.

The failure of the trade negotiations now underway between the US and the Philippines would reinforce the perception that US alliances have morphed into pay-to-play schemes – and expensive ones, at that. Many others, not least China, are watching closely.

While European countries have pledged to boost defence spending, they remain strategically reliant on the United States, an increasingly unreliable ally. As the US threatens disengagement, political leaders still refuse to ask the only question that matters: Can Europe ensure its security on its own?

One of the best ways for the European Union to bolster its military might and economic competitiveness is to become a world leader in quantum technologies. That will require the bloc to focus its research and design efforts, establish protective safeguards for sensitive research, and embrace a culture of deliberate risk-taking.

Ukraine has shown that high-tech capabilities alone don’t win wars. Victory also depends on low-tech solutions – and on rapidly and cheaply integrating the two.