The Proliferation Risk of Lethal Autonomous Weapons – Paper Launch

Join us for a discussion about RUSI’s recent paper on the proliferation risk of lethal autonomous weapons.

17:00 – 17:50 BST 3 June 2024 + Add to calendar London Venue: RUSI, 61 Whitehall

Overview

Too often, conversations about lethal autonomous weapons (‘killer robots’ or even ‘slaughter bots’, as some describe them) create more heat than light. But as these systems proliferate, how worried should we be?

The lack of a clear definition or framework for categorising lethal autonomous weapons systems has made informed debate on the subject difficult.

The RUSI paper ‘Assessing Autonomous Weapons as a Proliferation Risk’ acknowledges that lethal autonomous systems are not all the same, and thus the likelihood and impact of their proliferation is different.

The paper’s authors consider three groups of systems: the minimum viable product (MVP) paradigm; military off-the-shelf (MOTS); and ‘boutique’ systems. All will pose problems for militaries and civil authorities. Yet while MVP systems are the most likely to spread, they remain fragile and can be countered, although Western militaries currently lack the defensive systems in depth to defeat the threat they pose. Boutique autonomous systems are far more damaging to stability, but are also more complex and expensive, and their proliferation is less likely beyond a small number of states with the organisational capacity and budgets to use them effectively.

This discussion to launch the paper will be moderated by Juliana Suess, Research Fellow for Space in the RUSI Military Sciences Team.

About the Speakers

Paul O’Neill is a senior research fellow at RUSI, where his work covers defence strategy, organisational and people aspects of defence. He co-authored the paper on AI and Trust, and is the co-host of the hugely popular Talking Strategy podcast.

Sam Cranny Evans is an expert in modern warfare, including integration, electronic warfare, AI and lethal autonomy, especially as employed in Ukraine. A former analyst for Janes and RUSI, he is now a RUSI Associate Fellow.

Mark Brakel is Director of Policy for the Future of Life Institute, responsible for the Institute’s advocacy and policy work globally, a significant theme being lethal autonomous weapons.