The UAE has emerged as Israel’s most operationally significant Arab partner. But, for now, the relationship is no guarantee of wider regional integration.
The US government tried to provide political risk insurance and guarantees to shipping and energy firms operating in the Gulf in an effort to keep the Hormuz Strait open. Here is the story why the scheme did not work.
US-Israeli strikes suggest preferred political end-states. Each make assumptions of resilience, anti-regime sentiment and air power effects. Do these assumptions still hold?
Significant numbers of advanced munitions have been expended, revealing that battlefield dominance matters less than the industrial capacity to replenish critical stockpiles.
The military operations against Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and begun a war that threatens to engulf the region, marking Roaring Lion and Epic Fury as significant violent events.
For regime change and the elimination of Iran’s nuclear programme through an air-only campaign, the US and Israel will have to contest with many unknowns.
Putin must walk a fine line between doing the minimum required to support its nominal ally in the region, while ensuring that Russia retains its relevance in the Middle East.
As Turkish and Israeli planners increasingly frame their rivalry as an interconnected, multi-theatre contest, the margin for miscalculation is narrowing.
Recent history in Afghanistan and Iraq teaches that rebuilding in active conflict zones comes with its share of hazard and futility, but it is a necessity in Gaza and Ukraine despite its uncertainty.
The United States is the only power that can succeed as a peacemaker in the Middle East; but that doesn’t mean the task will be easy. The question now is whether US President Donald Trump has the patience and stamina that brokering a lasting political resolution between Israelis and Palestinians requires.
Jane and Jason consider the impact of the hostage release, Gaza's future governance, and the implications of an Iran peace deal as the UN celebrates its 80th anniversary.
While the current peace proposal for Gaza, authored by Israel and the US, no longer includes displacement of Palestinians to Egypt's Sinai peninsula, Cairo is right to be concerned such an idea is a live consideration.
