Military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and Tehran's criticism of the IAEA threaten to undermine the credibility and effectiveness of the Agency's work, with implications for non-proliferation beyond the Iran nuclear file.
In this episode of RUSI Reflects, three RUSI experts provide their assessment of the effectiveness of US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and their predictions for what might happen next following the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump.
Arthur Snell and Jason Pack attempt to untangle the latest: from the Iranian attack on the US airbase in Qatar to Trump’s declaration of forever peace to end what he is cleverly calling the 12 Day War.
Gulf States reacting to the attacks on Iran have been outspoken but not unguarded, as statesmen and diplomats consider the road ahead. The affront is balanced against the existing relationships with Iran and the US - with some regard for how to manage an exodus of refugees in the event of a deeper conflict.
Geopolitical shocks continue to impact the oil market as prices spike in response to the Israel-Iran conflict. With the US mulling an attack on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in Fordow, the Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran’s few remaining deterrents.
Explore recent geopolitical events with Jason Pack and Jane Kinninmont, discussing Trump's contradictions, G7 mediation, and the risks of regime change in Iran.
Operation Rising Lion has demonstrated the vast conventional superiority that Israel enjoys over Iran, highlighting the importance of intelligence, surprise and effective air and missile defence. But for now, the impact on Iran’s nuclear programme is more uncertain.
Both Iran and Israel have good reason to see the current conflict as existential, with few remaining mediators deemed reliable to effect de-escalation.
'Energy efficiency and electrification remain the most effective means in the short term of reducing exposure to geopolitical risk to oil prices emanating from the Middle East and Russia.'
'Their targeting of Iran's main enrichment facility and a number of senior Iranian scientists suggests an intent to inflict serious damage on the programme.'
'The scale of these strikes suggests this operation is intended not just to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also to cripple any potential military response and even to destabilise the regime.'
Israel’s deliberate starvation of Gaza’s population is a logical conclusion of a campaign aimed at the destruction of life in the Strip, a campaign that many experts view as genocidal.
Political support for the war in Gaza is at a nadir among Israel’s allies in the international community, with the UK looking for leverage to end the conflict.
